Warriors vs. Grizzlies prediction, odds, line: 2022 NBA picks, Jan. 11 best bets from model on 52-28 run

The Golden State Warriors visit the Memphis Grizzlies for a high-profile Western Conference tilt on Tuesday. Golden State enters with the best record in the league at 30-9, including a 12-6 mark on the road, while Memphis is 28-14 after winning the last nine games in a row. Steven Adams (protocols) is listed as questionable for Memphis, with Dillon Brooks (ankle) ruled out. Draymond Green (calf) and James Wiseman (knee) are out for Golden State.

Caesars Sportsbook lists Golden State as a two-point favorite, and tip-off is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET. The total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, or the Over-Under, is 221 in the latest odds. Before you make any NBA predictions with the Warriors vs. Grizzlies match-up, be sure to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model. 

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks over the past three-plus seasons. The model entered Week 13 of the 2021-22 NBA season on a stunning 52-28 roll on all top-rated NBA picks, returning almost $2,000. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Warriors vs. Grizzlies, and just locked in its picks and NBA predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Now, here are several NBA betting lines and trends for Grizzlies vs. Warriors:

  • Warriors vs. Grizzlies spread: Warriors -2
  • Warriors vs. Grizzlies over-under: 221 points
  • Warriors vs. Grizzlies money line: Warriors -130, Grizzlies +110
  • GSW: The Warriors are 9-8-1 against the spread in road games
  • MEM: The Grizzlies are 12-10 against the spread in home games

Featured Game | Memphis Grizzlies vs. Golden State Warriors

Why the Warriors can cover

Golden State owns the NBA’s best record and best net rating, out-scoring opponents by 8.9 points per 100 possessions, and those numbers could improve with Klay Thompson back from an Achilles injury. The Warriors are averaging 27.9 assists per game, No. 2 in the NBA, and Golden State assists on more than 69 percent of field goals to lead the NBA. The Warriors are in the top 10 of the league in offensive rebound rate (27.7 percent) and fast-break points (15.0 per game), with elite marks in field-goal percentage (46.8 percent), 3-point percentage (35.9 percent) and 2-point percentage (56.1 percent). While the offense is potent, the defense is even better, leading the NBA in giving up only 101.9 points per 100 possessions. 

Opponents are shooting only 42.5 percent against the Warriors, the best defensive mark in the league, and that includes a 49.8 percent clip on 2-point shots. Golden State is No. 2 in the NBA in points allowed in the paint (41.3 per game), with top-eight marks in defensive rebound rate (74 percent), second-chance points allowed (12.3 per game) and fast-break points allowed (11.0 per game). No team allows fewer assists (21.4 per game) than the Warriors, and the Grizzlies are in the bottom five of the NBA in free-throw accuracy this season.

Why the Grizzlies can cover

Golden State is enjoying a fantastic season, but the Warriors do have weaknesses. The Warriors commit a turnover on 16 percent of offensive possessions, the second-worst mark in the NBA. Golden State is also in the NBA’s bottom tier in free throw attempts (19.9 per game) and free throw accuracy (74.9 percent) on offense, with the No. 25 mark in the NBA in free throw prevention on defense. From there, the Grizzlies are elite on offense, scoring 112.2 points per 100 possessions. 

Memphis leads the entire NBA in points in the paint (55.3 per game), offensive rebound rate (33.2 percent) and second-chance points (17.7 per game), showcasing elite athleticism and physicality. The Grizzlies are also the class of the NBA in creating defensive havoc, posting league-best marks in steals (10.2 per game) and blocks (6.2 per game) while generating 15.3 turnovers per game from opponents. That leads to 16.3 fast break points per game, No. 2 in the NBA, and Memphis consistently wins on the margins.

How to make Grizzlies vs. Warriors picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning under on the total, projecting 218 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread has all of the value. You can only see the model’s pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Warriors vs. Grizzlies? And which side of the spread has all of the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.  

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